A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
